It’s October, and an Indian chief thinks it’s going to be a cold winter. So he instructs his tribe to collect firewood. To double-check his prediction, the chief calls the National Weather Service and asks a meteorologist if the winter is going to be a cold one. The man responds, “According to our indicators, we think it might.” So the chief tells his people to find extra wood, just in case.
A week later he calls the National Weather Service again, and they confirm that a harsh winter is headed their way. The chief orders all of his people to scavenge every scrap of wood they can. Two weeks later he calls the National Weather Service again and asks, “Are you absolutely sure this winter is going to be very cold?” “Absolutely,” the man replies. “The Indians are collecting wood like crazy.”